Q1 2026 Market Data
County-level market data, regional analysis, and actionable insights for Florida homeowners considering a sale. Updated quarterly.
The Florida residential real estate market in Q1 2026 is best described as bifurcated. Population growth continues to support demand in key metro areas, but the compounding effects of elevated insurance premiums, persistent interest rates above 6%, and rising inventory are creating a distinctly different experience for sellers depending on geography, property type, and condition.
Statewide, the median single-family home price held at $412,000 in Q1 2026 - essentially flat year-over-year after two consecutive years of deceleration from the 2021-2023 boom. But this topline number obscures a widening gap between markets. Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties posted 3-5% price gains driven by international capital flows and constrained land supply. Meanwhile, Lee, Charlotte, and Volusia counties saw 1-3% price declines as insurance costs and post-hurricane inventory weighed on values.
Cash transactions accounted for 33.8% of all closed sales statewide - well above the national average of 28% - reflecting both investor activity and the practical advantage of avoiding mortgage-contingent delays in an uncertain lending environment. Days on market increased modestly to 48 statewide, up from 41 in Q1 2025, signaling that buyers are taking longer to commit and sellers are adjusting expectations.
The key takeaway for sellers: your home's marketability in 2026 depends less on statewide trends and more on your specific county, your property's insurability, its roof age, and whether your price aligns with what cash buyers and mortgage-qualified buyers can actually pay after factoring in insurance costs that have tripled since 2020.
Florida recorded approximately 68,400 closed single-family home sales in Q1 2026, down 4.2% from Q1 2025. The decline is primarily attributable to elevated mortgage rates suppressing first-time buyer activity and increased days on market extending the transaction timeline. New listings entered the market at a 7.1% higher rate than Q1 2025, contributing to a statewide inventory level of 4.8 months - the highest since Q3 2019.
The median sale price of $412,000 represents a 0.5% increase year-over-year. Adjusted for inflation (CPI running at 2.8% annually), real home prices declined approximately 2.3% - a meaningful distinction for sellers calculating actual purchasing power from a sale.
Price per square foot averaged $238 statewide, with significant variation from $158/sqft in inland Polk County to $412/sqft in coastal Palm Beach County. The sale-to-list price ratio of 96.2% indicates that the average seller accepted a 3.8% discount from their initial asking price - reinforcing the importance of accurate pricing from day one.
| Metric | Q1 2026 | Q1 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median Price | $535,000 | $510,000 | +4.9% |
| Days on Market | 38 | 33 | +5 days |
| Months of Inventory | 4.1 | 3.4 | +0.7 |
| Cash Sale % | 42.1% | 40.3% | +1.8 pts |
| Sale-to-List Ratio | 97.1% | 97.8% | -0.7 pts |
South Florida remains the strongest seller's market in the state. International buyers - particularly from Latin America, Canada, and Europe - continue to provide a demand floor that insulates the tri-county area from the softening seen elsewhere. Cash transactions above 42% reflect this international capital, which is less sensitive to mortgage rate fluctuations. Single-family inventory remains constrained, though the condo market faces headwinds from new construction deliveries and post-Surfside safety assessment requirements driving special assessments in older buildings.
| Metric | Q1 2026 | Q1 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median Price | $395,000 | $385,000 | +2.6% |
| Days on Market | 42 | 37 | +5 days |
| Months of Inventory | 4.3 | 3.6 | +0.7 |
| Cash Sale % | 28.5% | 27.0% | +1.5 pts |
| Sale-to-List Ratio | 96.8% | 97.5% | -0.7 pts |
Orlando and the surrounding Central Florida metro continues to benefit from strong population growth - the region absorbed approximately 55,000 new residents in 2025. The tourism and tech economies provide a diversified employment base. Relative affordability compared to South Florida and the coasts keeps demand steady in the $300K-$450K range. New construction in communities along the I-4 corridor provides competition for resale sellers, particularly in Osceola and Lake counties.
| Metric | Q1 2026 | Q1 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median Price | $405,000 | $400,000 | +1.3% |
| Days on Market | 47 | 39 | +8 days |
| Months of Inventory | 5.0 | 4.1 | +0.9 |
| Cash Sale % | 31.2% | 29.8% | +1.4 pts |
| Sale-to-List Ratio | 95.8% | 97.0% | -1.2 pts |
Tampa Bay is transitioning from a seller's market to a balanced market. Inventory growth has been the most aggressive of any major Florida metro, with months of supply reaching 5.0 - effectively neutral territory. Pinellas County waterfront properties face particular headwinds from insurance costs averaging $7,200 annually. The sale-to-list ratio of 95.8% indicates sellers are accepting larger price concessions to close deals. Well-maintained properties in Hillsborough's top school zones remain competitive; dated properties in flood-prone areas are sitting.
| Metric | Q1 2026 | Q1 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median Price | $370,000 | $365,000 | +1.4% |
| Days on Market | 44 | 38 | +6 days |
| Months of Inventory | 4.5 | 3.8 | +0.7 |
| Cash Sale % | 30.8% | 28.9% | +1.9 pts |
| Sale-to-List Ratio | 96.5% | 97.2% | -0.7 pts |
The Space Coast continues to benefit from aerospace industry expansion, with SpaceX, Blue Origin, L3Harris, and related contractors driving employment growth and housing demand. Melbourne and Palm Bay remain relatively affordable compared to South Florida, attracting both employees and retirees. The market is healthy but normalizing - the explosive appreciation of 2021-2022 has given way to steady, sustainable growth.
| Metric | Q1 2026 | Q1 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median Price | $380,000 | $378,000 | +0.5% |
| Days on Market | 52 | 43 | +9 days |
| Months of Inventory | 5.4 | 4.3 | +1.1 |
| Cash Sale % | 26.3% | 25.1% | +1.2 pts |
| Sale-to-List Ratio | 95.5% | 96.8% | -1.3 pts |
Jacksonville and the Northeast Florida market are experiencing the most significant inventory buildup of any major metro. Months of supply at 5.4 is approaching buyer's market territory. New construction in St. Johns County is adding supply that competes directly with resale homes. Price growth has stalled at 0.5% year-over-year, and the sale-to-list ratio indicates sellers are conceding an average of 4.5% from asking price. Military relocation activity provides a consistent demand baseline, but discretionary buyers are taking their time.
| Metric | Q1 2026 | Q1 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median Price | $420,000 | $430,000 | -2.3% |
| Days on Market | 58 | 48 | +10 days |
| Months of Inventory | 6.2 | 5.0 | +1.2 |
| Cash Sale % | 38.5% | 36.0% | +2.5 pts |
| Sale-to-List Ratio | 94.8% | 96.1% | -1.3 pts |
Southwest Florida is the weakest major market in the state. The combination of Hurricane Ian recovery construction flooding the market with renovated/rebuilt inventory, insurance premiums averaging $8,500+ annually in coastal Lee County, and 6.2 months of supply has created a clear buyer's market. Prices declined 2.3% year-over-year - the only major region with negative price growth. The silver lining: cash sale percentages are the second-highest in the state at 38.5%, reflecting investor activity that provides a floor for distressed or motivated sellers.
The following table presents Q1 2026 market data for Florida's 20 most active residential real estate counties, ranked by total closed sales volume.
| County | Median Price | DOM | YoY Change | Cash % | Inventory (mo) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami-Dade | $560,000 | 36 | +5.3% | 44.2% | 4.0 |
| Broward | $485,000 | 39 | +4.1% | 40.5% | 4.2 |
| Palm Beach | $545,000 | 37 | +4.8% | 41.8% | 4.1 |
| Hillsborough | $410,000 | 44 | +1.5% | 30.1% | 4.8 |
| Orange | $405,000 | 40 | +2.9% | 29.2% | 4.1 |
| Duval | $365,000 | 50 | +0.8% | 25.8% | 5.2 |
| Pinellas | $395,000 | 49 | +0.9% | 33.0% | 5.1 |
| Lee | $385,000 | 60 | -2.8% | 39.1% | 6.5 |
| Brevard | $375,000 | 43 | +1.6% | 31.2% | 4.4 |
| Polk | $310,000 | 46 | +1.2% | 24.5% | 4.7 |
| Pasco | $345,000 | 48 | +1.0% | 27.8% | 5.0 |
| Volusia | $340,000 | 51 | -1.2% | 29.5% | 5.3 |
| Sarasota | $460,000 | 55 | -1.8% | 40.2% | 5.9 |
| Osceola | $380,000 | 43 | +2.5% | 26.8% | 4.4 |
| Manatee | $430,000 | 52 | -0.5% | 33.5% | 5.4 |
| Seminole | $425,000 | 38 | +2.8% | 28.0% | 3.9 |
| Collier | $580,000 | 56 | -1.5% | 45.3% | 6.0 |
| St. Johns | $475,000 | 48 | +1.0% | 24.2% | 5.1 |
| Lake | $365,000 | 45 | +1.8% | 26.0% | 4.6 |
| Charlotte | $335,000 | 62 | -3.1% | 37.8% | 6.8 |
Notable patterns in the county data: The three South Florida counties (Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach) share consistently high cash-sale percentages above 40%, low days on market under 40, and positive year-over-year price growth above 4%. At the other end, the Hurricane Ian impact counties (Lee, Charlotte) show the highest inventory levels (6.5 and 6.8 months), highest days on market (60 and 62), and the steepest price declines (-2.8% and -3.1%). Collier County's high cash percentage (45.3%) reflects its luxury market composition where buyers are less rate-sensitive.
One of the most common questions from Florida sellers is whether a cash offer is "worth it" compared to listing on the MLS. The answer depends on your market, your timeline, and the true cost of holding the property while waiting for a traditional buyer.
Our analysis of Q1 2026 transaction data reveals the following cash-offer-to-listing-price discount by region:
| Region | Avg Cash Offer (% of FMV) | Avg MLS Net (% of FMV) | Avg MLS DOM | Break-Even Holding Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Florida | 88-92% | 93-95% | 38 days | 3.5 months |
| Central Florida | 86-90% | 92-94% | 42 days | 3.2 months |
| Tampa Bay | 85-89% | 91-93% | 47 days | 2.9 months |
| Space Coast | 86-90% | 92-94% | 44 days | 3.1 months |
| North Florida | 84-88% | 90-92% | 52 days | 2.7 months |
| Southwest Florida | 82-87% | 89-91% | 58 days | 2.4 months |
The "Avg MLS Net" column accounts for the typical 5-6% in agent commissions and 1-2% in seller-paid closing costs that reduce the effective proceeds from an MLS sale. The "Break-Even Holding Period" represents how long a property would need to sit unsold before the carrying costs (mortgage, insurance, taxes, maintenance) erode the price premium of listing versus accepting a cash offer.
In practical terms: if you can sell on the MLS within 30-45 days at or near market value, listing typically nets more. But if your property has issues that extend days on market - needed repairs, insurance complications, title issues, difficult tenants, or an unfavorable location - a cash offer frequently results in higher net proceeds when total carrying costs are factored in.
For properties in Southwest Florida where average DOM is 58 days and the break-even holding period is just 2.4 months, the math increasingly favors cash offers for sellers who value certainty and speed.
Florida's property insurance market continues to be the single largest variable affecting home values and transaction viability. The data tells a stark story:
The insurance-to-home-value ratio has become a critical metric. When annual insurance exceeds 2% of home value, buyer qualification drops significantly. For a $300,000 home with $7,500 annual insurance, the insurance alone adds $625/month to the buyer's housing cost - equivalent to the principal and interest on an additional $95,000 of mortgage debt at 6.5%.
Properties most affected by the insurance crisis include: homes with roofs older than 15 years, homes built before the 2002 Florida Building Code update, properties in FEMA AE and VE flood zones, homes without hurricane shutters or impact windows, and properties with prior claims history. Sellers of these properties face a choice: invest in mitigation (new roof, impact windows, updated electrical/plumbing) to improve insurability, or accept a lower price that reflects the buyer's anticipated insurance burden.
Legislative reforms through Senate Bill 2A (2022) and subsequent measures have begun to stabilize the market, with several carriers returning to Florida. However, premium relief has been minimal for consumers so far. The takeaway for sellers: insurance costs are a tangible, calculable drag on your home's value, and they are not going away soon.
Mortgage rates in Q1 2026 averaged 6.4% for a 30-year fixed - down from the 7.79% peak of October 2023 but still more than double the 2.65% low of January 2021. The Federal Reserve's measured approach to rate adjustments has kept borrowing costs elevated for longer than many market participants anticipated.
The direct impact on sellers is measurable. At the current median Florida home price of $412,000 with 20% down:
Every 0.5% decrease in mortgage rates adds approximately 5-7% to the pool of qualified buyers in Florida. This is why the market reacts sharply to even modest rate movements. The Federal Reserve's forward guidance suggests 1-2 rate cuts in the second half of 2026, which could push 30-year mortgage rates toward the 5.75-6.0% range by year-end - a meaningful improvement that would expand the buyer pool.
For sellers, the strategic question is whether to sell now in a higher-rate, lower-competition environment or wait for potential rate relief that brings more buyers (but also more competing sellers) to market. History shows that timing rate movements is unreliable. Sellers who need to sell should price for today's market conditions, not tomorrow's predictions.
One critical nuance: elevated rates disproportionately benefit cash buyers. When financing is expensive, cash offers become more competitive. This is why Florida's cash-sale percentage has risen from 25% in 2021 to 33.8% in Q1 2026. For sellers seeking certainty, the cash buyer market has never been stronger.
Based on current data trends, employment figures, migration patterns, and monetary policy signals, our outlook for Florida residential real estate through the remainder of 2026:
Prices: We project statewide median prices to end 2026 in the range of $410,000-$420,000, representing 0-2% annual growth. South Florida will outperform (3-5% growth), Central Florida will track the state average (1-3%), and Southwest Florida and the Panhandle will underperform (-2% to +1%). County-level variation will exceed regional averages.
Inventory: Expect continued inventory builds through Q2 and Q3, with statewide months of supply potentially reaching 5.5-6.0 by late summer - the highest level since 2018. Seasonal patterns should bring some relief in Q4 as snowbird buying season begins, but inventory will remain elevated compared to the pandemic-era lows of 1.5-2.0 months.
Days on market: We anticipate statewide DOM increasing to 50-55 by mid-year before stabilizing. Properties priced correctly will continue to sell within 30-40 days. Overpriced properties will sit for 90+ days and require price reductions.
Cash transactions: Cash-sale percentages will remain elevated at 32-36% statewide, supported by investor activity and the practical advantages of cash closings in a complex lending environment.
Insurance: Premiums are projected to increase another 5-10% through 2026, though the rate of increase is decelerating compared to the 20-30% annual increases of 2022-2024. Legislative reforms will take 2-3 more years to produce meaningful consumer savings.
Wild cards: An active hurricane season (NOAA has forecast above-average activity for 2026) could disrupt Southwest Florida's recovery and trigger another insurance market tightening. Conversely, faster-than-expected Fed rate cuts could stimulate buyer demand and absorb excess inventory.
Considering selling your Florida home? Whether you are in a strong seller's market or a challenging one, getting a cash offer gives you a firm baseline to compare against listing. There is no obligation and no cost.
This report is updated quarterly. The next update will cover Q2 2026 data and will be published in July 2026. Subscribe to our email list to be notified when new reports are available.
Yes. You may cite data from this report with attribution to OneCashOffer.com. Please link back to this page when referencing specific statistics or tables.
Our forecasts are based on current trend data and economic indicators. Real estate markets are inherently unpredictable. These projections should be considered directional guidance, not guarantees. Individual property values depend on hyperlocal factors that statewide data cannot capture.